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CRN Study on Organizational Responses to Molecular Manufacturing

Learn how certain major organizations might respond to the advent of advanced nanotechnology, or molecular manufacturing (MM), especially in the likely case that they will not be prepared for its arrival. It appears probable that MM will arrive sooner than most organizations expect. Reactions may be varied, and perhaps panicked. To understand how the effects of MM will play out, including how the introduction of benefits may be delayed, we will need to know how a variety of organizations could react if they are taken by surprise.
 
PURPOSE AND RELEVANCE

Molecular manufacturing (MM) will provide spectacular opportunities for humanity's gain, and also will pose grave threats. Benefits range from clean energy, clean water, and vastly more productive agriculture, to greatly improved human health and longevity, seamless universal access to high-bandwidth computing, low-cost expansion into outer space, and more. But in order to realize all these gains, plans first must be made to contain the dangers.
 
Molecular manufacturing still is not "on the radar" of many organizations, including businesses, governments, and national militaries. The effects of MM could be extreme, resulting from a sudden dramatic increase in manufacturing capacity, product performance, and ease of new product design. Implications may include severe economic disruption, social chaos, oppressive restrictions, black market trafficking, ubiquitous surveillance, and an unstable arms race. It appears likely that MM will arrive sooner than most organizations expect. Reactions to this may be varied, and perhaps panicked. In order to understand how the effects of MM will play out, we will need to know how a variety of organizations might react if they are taken by surprise. In addition to the theoretical understanding, a survey of predicted reactions will show where education and awareness efforts are most needed to avoid negative or destructive outcomes that may result from being blindsided by this potent new technology.
 
DESCRIPTION AND METHODOLOGY

We propose to study how various major organizations would respond to the advent of molecular manufacturing (advanced nanotechnology), especially in the likely case that they will not have prepared for it. We are unaware of any similar studies having been performed previously. Data will be gathered through the worldwide nodes of the AC/UNU Millennium Project via a process of interviews. Several scenarios will be prepared, along with supporting material, as the basis for the interviews. Scenarios will focus on basic driving factors identified by the Center for Responsible Nanotechnology (CRN), Royal Dutch Shell, and others, and will be reviewed by the CRN Task Force. Chairpersons from ten selected Millennium Project nodes will contact high-level interviewees who will be asked how their organizations might respond to the prepared scenarios. We will aim for a balance of 20-30% of interviews from US/Canada, 20-30% from Europe, and the rest from Asia, Africa, South America, and Oceania. Approximately 30 interviews will be conducted in several stages, distributed among nodes depending on quality of results from each node.
 
Written responses will be collated by CRN, and will be studied by CRN's personnel, advisors, and Global Task Force. Responses and observations will be published in various online and print media, presented at conferences, and publicized as appropriate.
 
PROPOSED BUDGET

Salaries and Wages - Designing the study, writing the scenarios and supporting materials, and collating the data: 60 hours of expert time at $100 per hour plus 40 hours of intern-level time at $15 per hour. Total: $6,600.
 
Other Direct Costs -

Interviews: $250 apiece paid to the Millennium Project nodes. Total: $7,500.
 
Translation: Assuming 2/3 in language other than English: 20 interviews x 4 pages x $50 per technical page. Total: $4,000.
 
Consulting: Jerome Glenn of AC/UNU, 10 hours of advice on study design and scenario composition. Total: $1,000.
 
Advertising and publishing of results: $1,000.

No other direct funders or sponsors have been identified at this time. However, in-kind contributions to the project have been committed from the Millennium Project (access to and assistance with its global infrastructure), and from our organization, the Center for Responsible Nanotechnology (office use, telephone time, computers, etc.).